School of Business releases job growth update

The National Consensus Forecast of Labor Employment, Compensation and Productivity is not forecasting a job contraction nationwide in 2008, and the projection for productivity remains relatively low.

A recession is technically defined as a contraction in both employment and output, commented Dawn McLaren, research economist at the W. P. Carey School of Business and editor of the Blue Chip Job Growth Update.

But, "while the national job growth average registered one percent in December 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, it should be remembered that this average is made up of highs and lows across both industry and geographic divisions," McLaren said. "The lows have been pulling the national average slowly downward over the last several months."

Year over year, the U.S. economy grew by 1,270,000 nonagricultural jobs in December 2007 over December 2006, a 0.9 percent increase, according to the Blue Chip Job Growth Update. The goods producing sector contracted by 403,000 jobs, a 1.8 percent decrease in December 2007 compared to December 2006, however the service providing sector grew by 1,673,000 non-agricultural jobs for the same period, a 1.5 percent increase.

Among the states, Utah continues to hold the number one rank in total nonagricultural job growth in December 2007 over December 2006, with a 4.0 percent increase representing 50,000 jobs. And Michigan again pulled up the rear with the lowest rate of total nonagricultural job growth for the same period, with a 1.8 percent decrease, or 78,500 jobs. The Oregon information sector recorded 8.6 percent job growth in December 2007 compared to December 2006 (3,100 jobs), and Montana had the highest job growth in the construction and mining sector, with a 9.0 percent increase representing 3,400 jobs.

Among the metro areas, the Danville, Virginia metropolitan area ranked first in nonagricultural job growth in metropolitan markets with under 1,000,000 workers for December 2007 over December 2006, posting a 6.9 percent gain, representing 2,800 jobs. Among metropolitan markets with a workforce of over 1,000,000, the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Washington metropolitan area had the highest rate of growth in nonagricultural employment, posting a 2.8 percent gain, which represented 41,100 jobs.

The Blue Chip Job Growth Update has been the first-to-user source of complete federal employment data since its inception in 1992. It presents data compiled from the U.S. Bureau of Labor in an easy-to-read format, permitting state-to-state comparisons within 24 hours of the release of the data. The National Consensus Forecast of Labor Employment, Compensation and Productivity, which appears quarterly in the Job Growth Update, contains information from a panel of leading economists around the country.

The Blue Chip Job Growth Update is available online to subscribers. A sample issue and subscription information are available online at http://wpcarey.asu.edu/jgu.