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'Most Accurate Economist' to receive ASU honor


November 10, 2008

Even in these difficult, unpredictable financial times, one top economist is among those being recognized for having his finger on the pulse of the economy.

Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors and chief economist for TD Bank, will receive the 2008 Lawrence R. Klein Award from the Nobel Prize-winning economist for whom the award is named. At the award ceremony in New York, Naroff will also offer his highly anticipated economic forecast for 2009.

“I’m honored to receive this award,” says Naroff. “This is a time when more and more people are looking to economists for insight about the future of the economy. I look forward to providing my perspective on this ever-changing and difficult economic environment.”

The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University sponsors and judges the Lawrence R. Klein Award, which is recognized as one of the most prestigious and longest-standing awards in the economic profession. Naroff was chosen for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip Economics Indicators survey participants for the years 2004 to 2007. The survey involves a consensus panel of experts, has been around for 30 years and is highly regarded as the “gold standard” of business forecasts in the nation. Being the most accurate in the field is a major accomplishment.

“The Lawrence R. Klein Award competition involves the top 50 economic forecasters in the country,” says Professor Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “To come out on top, a forecaster has to predict four key indicators over a four-year period. Joel Naroff saw that real output was going to slow down, but inflation would pick up, and his unemployment rate forecasts were almost exact for each year.”

Naroff consults with banks on asset/liability and economic development issues. He also consults with corporations on strategic economic and business planning and advises local and state governments. He is frequently quoted in the national media. He was named forecaster of the year by MSNBC.com in 2006, by the National Association for Business Economics in 2007, and by Bloomberg Business News in 2008. He has also been recognized as a top forecaster by USA Today.

The award reception will be held at the University Club in New York on Nov. 13 at 6 p.m. Randell E. Moore, executive editor of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, and Wm. Polk Carey, founder and chairman of W. P. Carey & Co. LLC, will be among the high-profile attendees.