'Most Accurate Economist' awardee to deliver 2014 forecast
Not many people understood just how sluggish the recovery from the Great Recession was going to be, but Dean Maki of Barclays correctly predicted one of the toughest times in U.S. economic history. For his incredible forecast, Maki will receive the prestigious Lawrence R. Klein Award for economic-forecasting accuracy in New York on Oct. 29. He will also deliver his highly regarded 2014 forecast.
“I am deeply honored to receive this award on behalf of my team, which includes Michael Gapen, Peter Newland and Cooper Howes,” says Maki, a managing director and chief U.S. economist at Barclays. “The challenge in forecasting during this recovery has been to account for both cyclical and structural trends, and we hope our clients have benefitted from our analysis.”
The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University sponsors and judges the Lawrence R. Klein Award, one of the best-known and longest-standing awards in the economic profession. The annual award, named for Nobel Prize winner Dr. Lawrence R. Klein, goes to the individual or team with the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey participants for a multi-year period. The Blue Chip newsletter, edited by Randell Moore, has been published for almost 40 years and is regarded as the “gold standard” of business forecasts.
Maki earned this year’s award for his 2009 to 2012 predictions, beating out about 50 of the nation’s other top economic forecasters.
“Dean Maki’s overall projections handily beat the consensus for those four years, and his unemployment and inflation figures were particularly accurate, the best of the group,” says research professor Lee McPheters of the W. P. Carey School of Business. “His 2012 forecasts really set him apart. He predicted GDP would rise and unemployment would decrease, and his numeric estimates for those indicators were spot on.”
Maki is responsible for analyzing and forecasting the U.S. economy and monetary and fiscal policy at Barclays. Bloomberg News named him the most accurate forecaster of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for 2009 and the most accurate forecaster of consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation for 2008 to 2010. Prior to joining Barclays in 2005, Maki was a vice president of economic research at JPMorgan Chase, a U.S. economist for Putnam Investments and a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board. He holds a doctorate from Stanford University and has had research published in a number of academic journals.
At the awards event, Maki will deliver his 2014 forecast, which includes these predictions:
• Moderately faster growth of GDP, as government spending stabilizes and consumers are more willing to spend money.
• A continued fairly brisk drop in the unemployment rate, with the labor-force participation rate staying pretty steady.
• Gradually rising inflation, as people’s salaries begin to grow faster.
• Continued growth in the housing market, despite higher mortgage rates.
Top industry professionals and others will be on hand for the invitation-only ceremony, beginning at 6 p.m., Oct. 29, at the University Club in New York.
Some VIPs in attendance will include Randell E. Moore, executive editor of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators; Amy Hillman, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business; Hannah Klein, daughter of the award namesake; and Francis J. Carey, chairman of the W. P. Carey Foundation, which is sponsoring and hosting the event. Senior executives from W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC) will also be in attendance. Larry Kantor, a managing director and head of research at Barclays, will officially present Maki with the award.