10 climate insights to guide our future
"10 New Insights in Climate Science," focused on recent advances in climate change research and policy opportunities, published Oct. 28. Photo courtesy of Pixabay
A group of globally renowned social, natural and climate scientists has once again convened to offer their newest annual synthesis report, “10 New Insights in Climate Science.”
The report, published Oct. 28 as a tool to be used in climate policy negotiations around the world, including the international climate conference COP29, provides input on recent advances in climate change research and key opportunities for impactful climate action.
The report — jointly produced by Future Earth, The Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme — highlights the policy implications that can inform climate negotiations and policy through 2025 and beyond.
"The urgency to respond to climate change has never been clearer,” said Peter Schlosser, vice president and vice provost of Global Futures at Arizona State University and co-chair of The Earth League. “Every degree of warming, every delay in action, accelerates the transition from climate crisis to climate catastrophe. We have to translate our existing knowledge to action much faster to preserve Earth’s life-supporting systems and bring humanity back to a state where it is in balance with the Earth system on which it depends.”
In addition to his role as co-chair of The Earth League, Schlosser serves as the director of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory at ASU. The Secretariat of The Earth League is distributed among the Global Futures Laboratory, the Climate Service Center Germany at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
The report urges policymakers attending the COP29 conference to reflect on these insights as they conduct the latest iteration of climate negotiations for the coming year. The timing of the report also coincides with the approaching renewal of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Under the Paris Agreement, the NDCs are submitted every five years detailing each participating country’s plan to combat rising temperatures.
This year’s 10 insights are:
- Methane levels are surging. Enforceable policies for emission reductions are essential.
- Reductions in air pollution have implications for mitigation and adaptation given complex aerosol-climate interactions.
- Increasing heat is making more of the planet uninhabitable.
- Climate extremes are harming maternal and reproductive well-being.
- Concerns about El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with an increasingly warm ocean.
- Biocultural diversity can bolster the Amazon’s resilience against climate change.
- Critical infrastructure is increasingly exposed to climate hazards, with risk of cascading disruption across interconnected networks.
- New frameworks for climate-resilient development in cities provide decision-makers with ideas for unlocking co-benefits.
- Closing governance gaps in the energy transition minerals global value chain is crucial for a just and equitable energy transition.
- Public acceptance of (or resistance to) climate policies crucially depends on perceptions of fairness.
The scientific evidence that guides this year’s report was published between January 2023 and June 2024 — a range of time that was particularly saturated with record-shattering temperatures. According to the report, it is highly probable that 2024 will become the warmest year on record. The third insight, focused on heat, warns that there are currently 600 million people living outside of “habitable climatic conditions,” with an estimated 10% of the global population to join that demographic with each additional degree (Celsius) of future warming.
"Global temperature records continue to break, pushing the Paris Agreement's goals further out of reach and exacerbating threats to maternal health,” said Jemilah Mahmood, executive director of the Sunway Centre for Planetary Health. Mahmood served as an editorial board member on this year’s report. “This is particularly acute in climate-vulnerable nations as it’s compounded with limited access to education and low incomes, in addition to the breakdown of critical infrastructure, which further compromises food security, sanitation and health care services.”
While higher temperatures can be felt by all, people are not uniformly affected by heat. Conditions such as age, medication use, access to cooling resources or the presence of preexisting conditions can significantly alter a person’s reaction to extreme temperatures.
“Preparedness for heat extremes, including early warning systems, must be a priority at the national and regional scale. Without action, the consequences could be catastrophic,” Mahmood said. “Without systemic shifts, future generations will be impacted.”
Both livelihood and financial threats are considered in “10 New Insights In Climate Science.” According to the report, the projected additional global economic losses due to increases in the warming weather pattern of El Niño’s frequency — partnered with intensity resulting from global warming — could be almost $100 trillion over the 21st century.
“This report confirms that the world faces planetary scale challenges, from the rise of methane emissions to the vulnerability of critical infrastructure,” said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-chair of The Earth League. “It shows that rising heat, ocean instability and a tipping of the Amazon rainforest could push parts of our planet beyond habitable limits. Yet, it also provides clear pathways and solutions, demonstrating that with urgent, decisive action, we still can avoid unmanageable outcomes.”
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