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Macroeconomic researcher wins Blue Chip forecasting award from ASU

Michael Cosgrove to share 2024 predictions and accept the Lawrence R. Klein Award at March 6 event


Headshot of Michael Cosgrove.

Michael Cosgrove is the principal and founder of The Econoclast Inc. At a live event on March 6, he will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. The is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation.

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January 22, 2024

As economic analysts continue to debate the prospects of a soft landing versus a hard fall for the U.S. economy, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast Inc., predicts a mild recession with more disinflation and at least a 100-basis-points decline in the funds rate.

Cosgrove will deliver his 2024 economic outlook, including predictions for growth and monetary policy, at a live event on Wednesday, March 6, at the University Club of New York. At the event, Cosgrove will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. A livestream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available and is free for the public to view.

Register here for the virtual portion of the Lawrence R. Klein Award on Wednesday, March 6, from 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern.

The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics Inc.

“I have participated in Blue Chip Economic Indicators for several decades, and it is an honor to receive this prestigious award,” Cosgrove says. “Economic forecasting is a humbling experience, and I am grateful to win this award and for the ability to produce useful work for clients.”

Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at ASU, will present Cosgrove with his award, which will be followed by his economic forecast for the year.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPIconsumer price index and unemployment over the past four years,” says Dennis Hoffman, a professor of economics and director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “The past four years have included a plethora of hard-to-predict economic events, and Michael Cosgrove’s predictions remained especially salient. I congratulate Michael and his team at The Econoclast.” 

Cosgrove has been a long-term participant in Blue Chip Economic Indicators, The Wall Street Journal survey, Western Blue Chip Economic Indicators, and Pulsenomics, and he had the best home price forecast at Pulsenomics in 2014.

Cosgrove is a professor emeritus at University of Dallas, where he taught economics and published in academic journals focused on economics research. Prior to that he worked at Gulf Oil. Cosgrove received his PhD in agricultural economics from Ohio State University, his Master of Science from the University of Arizona, and his bachelor’s degree from South Dakota State University.

During the ceremony, Cosgrove will share his latest thoughts on the U.S. economic outlook, including:

  • Current challenges in macroeconomic forecasting.
  • Prospects for growth through the remainder of 2024 and early 2025.
  • The status of inflation and the implications for monetary policy.
  • Financial and housing market performance and risks.

Journalists who attend as members of the virtual audience can ask questions during the Q&A section of the event. 

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