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Michael Cosgrove honored with Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, presents 2024 forecast at March 6 event


Headshot of Michael Cosgrove.

Michael Cosgrove is the principal and founder of The Econoclast Inc. This year, he is honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting. The is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation.

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January 22, 2024

As economic analysts continue to debate the prospects for a soft landing versus a hard fall for the U.S. economy, Michael Cosgrove, principal and founder of The Econoclast, Inc., predicts a mild recession with more disinflation and at least 100 basis points decline in the funds rate.

Cosgrove is being honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy for 2023, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting.

Headshot of Ellen Zentner
Ellen Zentner

While Cosgrove is unable to attend the New York event, Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and two-time winner of the Klein Award, will present keynote remarks on the state of the economy at the ceremony on Wednesday, March 6, at the University Club of New York.

A livestream of the forecast and award ceremony will also be available, and is free for the public to view.

“I have tremendous respect for Cosgrove’s accomplishment and am honored to speak in his absence,” Zentner said. “The Klein Award has a rich history of excellence among forecasters. Winning is truly an achievement of a lifetime.”

Zentner is one of only five economists to earn the Klein Award twice.

Registration

Register here to attend the live presentation of the Lawrence R. Klein Award at the University Club of New York on March 6, from 6 to 8 p.m. ET.

The award is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, in partnership with the W. P. Carey Foundation. The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc.

“I have participated in Blue Chip Economic Indicators for several decades and it is an honor to receive this prestigious award,” Cosgrove said. “Economic forecasting is a humbling experience, and I am grateful to win this award and for the ability to produce useful work for clients.”

Ohad Kadan, dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, will present Cosgrove’s award, which will be followed by Zentner’s remarks.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPIconsumer price index and unemployment over the past four years,” said economics Professor Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “The past four years have included a plethora of hard-to-predict economic events, and Michael Cosgrove’s projections remained especially salient. I congratulate Michael and his team at the Econoclast.” 

Cosgrove has been a long-term participant in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, The Wall Street Journal survey, Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast and Pulsenomics, and had best home price forecast at Pulsenomics in 2014.

Livestream

Attendees can also register to watch the livestream of the event on Wednesday, March 6, from 7 to 8 p.m. ET.

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