Some Western states may not receive needed stimulus help

Even though some Western states, including Arizona, are among those hardest hit by unemployment from the recession, they may not receive as much help from the federal stimulus package as other states. New numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are out, and surprising analysis shows the stimulus package actually favors some of the states least impacted by the recession.

Research economist Lee McPheters, editor of Economy@W. P. Carey and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, compared nonagricultural employment figures for all 50 states from the start of the recession in December 2007 to January 2009. In the latest Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast, he also analyzes the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act -- the stimulus package -- on Western states. Detailed analysis, tables and access to the Western Blue Chip Forecast are available at Economy@W. P. Carey at http://economy.wpcarey.asu.edu.

The Obama administration estimated the state-by-state distribution of 3.6 million jobs expected to be saved or created by the stimulus package based on a formula linked to each state’s share of national employment. However, McPheters notes that, according to the newest numbers, some hard-hit states that lost greater percentages of jobs won’t really get as much of the stimulus package impact as needed, if the formula holds.

"Analysts will be watching closely to determine whether these funds are going not only to favored spending job categories, but also to those parts of the country most in need of economic support," McPheters says.

Here is a state-by-state summary of each Western job market’s change during the recession:

• Arizona will get less than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 4.5 percent (166,700 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 1.9 percent (70,000 jobs)

The state ranks 49th for job growth.

• California will get less than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 14.5 percent (541,200 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 11 percent (396,000 jobs)

The state ranks 38th for job growth.

• Colorado will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 1 percent (38,500 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 1.6 percent (59,000 jobs)

The state ranks 22nd for job growth.

• Idaho will get less than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 0.8 percent (28,400 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 0.5 percent (17,000 jobs)

The state ranks 46th for job growth.

• Montana will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 0.1 percent (2,000 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 0.3 percent (11,000 jobs)

The state ranks 10th for job growth.

• Nevada will get less than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 1.9 percent (69,200 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 0.9 percent (34,000 jobs)

The state ranks 48th for job growth.

• New Mexico will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 0.2 percent (9,000 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 0.6 percent (22,000 jobs)

The state ranks 15th for job growth.

• Oregon will get less than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 1.7 percent (63,100 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 1.2 percent (44,000 jobs)

The state ranks 39th for job growth.

• Texas will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 0 percent (GAINED 43,100 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 7.5 percent (269,000 jobs)

The state ranks 5th for job growth.

• Utah will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 0.7 percent (26,200 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 0.9 percent (32,000 jobs)

The state ranks 25th for job growth.

• Washington will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 1.2 percent (44,000 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 2.1 percent (75,000 jobs)

The state ranks 19th for job growth.

• Wyoming will get more than its share of jobs from the stimulus package.

• Portion of nation’s job loss – 0 percent (GAINED 7,500 jobs)

• Estimate of stimulus jobs – 0.2 percent (8,000 jobs)

The state ranks 1st for job growth.

Economy@W. P. Carey is a portal to economic information and analysis about the West and the nation. The W. P. Carey School of Business' Blue Chip Forecast publications are available free at the Web site. For e-mail alerts about new Economy and Blue Chip content, subscribe to Knowledge@W. P. Carey at http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu.