Greater Phoenix resale numbers tracking near historical norms

March 08, 2007

MESA, Ariz. — February, like January, tends to be a poor indicator of the coming year. In addition, it is a short month, so it is typically a low month for sales activity, frequently being the lowest month of the year. For February, 4,280 homes were recorded sold, in contrast to 4,520 for January, 5,460 for a year ago and 7,935 transactions in 2005. This was the lowest February since 4,090 homes were recorded sold in 2003, which was the lowest month for 2003. So far in 2007 a total of 8,800 homes have been recorded sold in contrast to 10,715 in 2006 and 17,290 in 2005 for the same time period.<separator></separator>While the resale market is tracking near historical norms, the overall health of the market will become more evident in the next few months, which are traditionally the strongest for the resale market, according Jay Q. Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University's Polytechnic campus.<separator></separator>"If 2007 is to show some improvement, listings should be increasing with a corresponding improvement in buyer activity. However, the activity levels should be well below those of the last few years, because the current market lacks the market frenzy to own and/or invest at almost any price and reasoning," said Butler.<separator></separator>If the international economy and political situation remains stable, the general expectation is that the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year, but no where near the records.<separator></separator>Much like the ever-increasing sales activity of the last few years, the rapid improvement in prices has disappeared. The median home price has been very stable at $260,000, which is the same as January, but down from last year's $265,000. For February 2007, 16 percent of all recorded sales were for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 43 percent for $200,000 to $299,999 and 39 percent for homes priced more than $300,000. Last year, the distribution was 19 percent of all recorded sales were for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 40 percent for $200,000 to $299,999 and 37 percent for homes priced more than $300,000.<separator></separator>The increase in the higher price levels demonstrates the importance of the move- up market in a slowing market. Since the greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly from $687,500 ($665,000 in January) in North Scottsdale to $139,500 ($148,000 in January) in the Sky Harbor area of the city of Phoenix.<separator></separator>Since home prices have declined slightly from a year ago, the monthly payment of $1,300 is down from last year's $1,320. Even though mortgage interest rates have been declining for the last few months, limited home appreciation and household income continues to raise concern about the ability of some homeowners to maintain their homes. This may be especially evident for those that have used some of the more creative financing instruments, such as option payment plans and initially low-interest-rate adjustable mortgages.<separator></separator>Because townhouse/condominium units are popular with seasonal visitors, it is not unusual to observe an improvement in February. Thus, February had 1,050 sales, in comparison to 850 for January and 1,260 sales for a year ago. The median home price has been very stable at $175,000, which is also the same as a year ago.<separator></separator>The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold in February 2007 was 1,670 square feet, which is larger than the 1,620 square feet for a year ago. The larger size further demonstrates the role of the move-up sector in the local housing market. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage was 1,085 square feet, which is smaller than the 1,135 square feet reported a year ago.<separator></separator><ul><li>In contrast to February 2006, recorded sales in the city of Phoenix decreased from 1,645 sales to 1,215 sales, while the median sales price increased to $228,470 from $213,750 for a year ago. Since Phoenix is a geographically large city, the median prices can range significantly such as $139,500 in the Sky Harbor area to $305,000 ($353,500 in January) in the Union Hills area. The townhouse/condominium sector decreased from 425 to 355 sales while the median price decreased from $158,500 to $150,000.</li><li>While the Scottsdale resale home market declined from 400 to 355 recorded sales, the median sales price increased from last year's $575,000 to $600,000. The median resale home price is $687,500 ($665,000 in January) in North Scottsdale and $321,250 ($308,000 in January) in South Scottsdale. The townhouse/condominium sector in Scottsdale also decreased from 235 to 220 sales and the median sales price decreased from $285,000 to $254,950.</li><li>The Mesa resale housing market declined from 655 to 460 sales, while the median price fell from $245,000 to $238,500 ($240,000 in January). The townhouse/condominium sector also fell from 190 to 140 sales, while the median home price increased from $155,000 to $161,400.</li><li>Glendale decreased from 435 to 300 sales and the median sales price decreased from $250,000 to $242,850 ($238,500 in January). The townhouse/condominium sector also slowed from 65 to 50 sales, while the median sales price decreased from $140,000 to $139,000.</li><li>For the city of Peoria, the resale market decreased from 275 sales to 235 sales, with the median price moving from $275,000 to $270,000 ($260,000 in January). The townhouse/condominium sector remained at 25 sales and the median price increased from $169,900 to $184,000.</li><li>In comparison to a year ago, the Sun City resale market remained at 100 sales, while the median sales price decreased to $204,500 from $216,000. As resale activity in Sun City West stayed at 55 sales, the median sales price decreased from $243,500 to $230,000. The townhouse/condominium market in Sun City declined from 60 to 45 recorded sales, while the median home price decreased from $146,450 to $129,000. In Sun City West, activity improved from 15 to 30 sales and the median sales price decreased from $180,000 to $166,000.</li><li>The resale market in Gilbert decreased from 290 to 230 sales, with the median sales price decreasing from $341,000 to $307,500 ($319,000 in January). The townhouse/condominium market fell from 20 to 15 sales as the median sales price decreased from $213,000 to $205,500.</li><li>For the city of Chandler, the resale market fell from 400 to 280 recorded sales, while the median sales price improved from $299,900 to $307,500 ($305,000 in January). The townhouse/condominium market declined from 65 to 50 sales and the median sales price declined from $183,600 to $170,830.</li><li>The resale market in Tempe increased from 120 to 135 sales, while the median sales price decreased from $300,000 to $280,000 ($282,950 in January). The townhouse/condominium sector slowed from 90 to 50 sales and the median sales price decreased from $185,000 to $182,500.</li><li>The highest median sales price was in Paradise Valley at $1,740,000 with a median square foot house of 3,840 square feet.</li><li>In the West Valley, the following communities represent 9 percent of the resale market. <ul><li>Avondale fell from 110 to 70 sales, with the median price moving from $261,000 to $242,080 ($243,950 in January).</li><li>El Mirage decreased from 60 to 45 sales, and the median home price went from $221,000 to $206,000 ($202,000 in January).</li><li>Goodyear declined from 80 to 65 sales, with the median price decreasing from $289,000 to $270,000 ($260,000 in January).</li><li>Surprise increased from 200 to 215 sales, while the median price decreased from $260,750 a year ago to $245,000 ($247,235 in January).</li></ul> </li></ul>