China’s rapid ascent in space puts U.S. leadership at risk, new report warns

Will China emerge as the dominant power in the modern era of space commercialization?

It appears likely, according to a new report released on Sept. 16 by the Commercial Space Federation in partnership with Arizona State University.

Jonathan Roll, lead researcher and co-author of the 112-page report titled “Redshift,” suggests that the U.S. may lose its dominant position in space as China quickly reshapes what advancement looks like on Earth and in orbit.

“If you look next to us and we see China there, and we're at parity with China, that's when we'll probably be too late,” said Roll, a member of the ASU NewSpace initiative, to assembled press during a briefing at the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, D.C. “That is this ‘redshift,’ (and) that is the moment that we are trying to avoid.”

Roll and his co-authors took a deep dive into six areas of China’s space ecosystem, which encompasses elements of Chinese society ranging from industry to military and science. The report details China’s plans, policy pronouncements and achievements and examines the threats that China poses to America’s strategic industry initiatives.

There’s no question that China is making progress in the space front.

China’s “Document 60,” drafted in 2014, aligned the country’s regulatory infrastructure to support the Chinese government’s ability to scale innovations, allowing private companies to license government technology and quickly mobilize in the civilian space.

Roll said that while China’s national priorities are a key driver of their space innovation, growth is being driven by city and provincial governments within China that are now competing against each other, as cities and provinces try to attract new aerospace investments, academic talent and more entrepreneurial startups.

“They’re (China) using our playbook to innovate, and they’re using their own to scale,” stressed Roll.

The report also revealed that China’s Space Silk Road and Belt and Road initiatives have generated more than 80 international space diplomacy projects across South America, Europe and Africa, from rocket and satellite manufacturing and training programs to large-scale facility ground stations. According to the report, these international clients and launch operations position China as a formidable launch competitor — one that can even rival leading American companies like SpaceX.

“The launch sites — there are now six of them. Four are land based, and two are out at sea. They provide China with a number of different orbital trajectories, and they can then diversify locations for their manufacturing,” Roll explained.

While space projects in the U.S., like NASA’s Artemis program, have continued to face challenges from budget cuts, China in recent years has made significant investments — and achievements — in space.

China’s Tiangong space station is poised to become the primary orbital hub as the International Space Station (ISS) nears retirement in the early 2030s.

“The important thing here is that China is hitting all of their milestones and their programs across demand,” said Roll. Roll emphasized to reporters that China is making very quick progress on a series of ambitious projects that will allow China to establish a base on the moon.

The report outlines recommendations on a path forward for American policymakers so that the U.S. maintains a lead on China in the 21st-century space race.

Congressman Brian Babin, chair of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, told reporters that Capitol Hill has taken notice of the report and that his committee will consider both a new NASA authorization bill as well as a commercial space bill to ensure American leadership in space.

“Whether it's sending astronauts to the moon or developing reusable space infrastructure, to put it simply, long-standing U.S. leadership in space is under threat, and we better wake up,” Babin said. “The U.S. cannot fall behind.”

The report, “Redshift: The Acceleration of China’s Commercial and Civil Space Enterprise & The Challenge to America,” was developed in collaboration with ASU with support from BryceTech and Orbital Gateway Consulting.

Read the full report.