Arizona public universities work together to predict housing insecurity before homelessness strikes
A homeless encampment in Phoenix. According to the Maricopa Association of Governments’ 2024 Homelessness Trends Report, an average of 962 county households per month last year experienced homelessness for the first time. Photo by iStock
The words “housing insecurity” conjure up the image of a family living in a car after losing their home, frantically seeking an affordable new place to live.
What if there was a way to predict housing insecurity before families were on the streets?
Kristin Ferguson is part of a team of researchers from Arizona’s three public universities that is creating analytic models designed to identify early factors associated with homelessness. Ultimately, she said, the team hopes to connect service providers with people most likely to experience homelessness before they lose their homes.
Ferguson is a professor at Arizona State University’s School of Social Work and co-founder of the Arizona Housing Analytics Collaborative, a joint effort by ASU, the University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University. The project aims to help prevent homelessness by collecting and analyzing Homeless Management Information System data.
The collaborative is using data analytics, predictive modeling and qualitative research to guide decision-making and improve coordination of care for people experiencing housing insecurity.
Ferguson said that identifying the likelihood of homelessness before it happens not only saves families from the anguish associated with housing uncertainty, but also can save tax dollars.
“It’s much more costly to help people after they become homeless,” she said. “The same amount of money that would help one person who is experiencing homelessness could help several people who are facing it but not yet experiencing it through flex-fund payments and other preventive measures.”
The collaborative is funded by the Garcia Family Foundation and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Ferguson said federal funding supports the ongoing study of how people experience life in encampments and ways to reduce their populations.
More people are entering homelessness in Maricopa County than are leaving it, according to the Maricopa Association of Governments’ 2024 Homelessness Trends Report. In that year, 19 new people experienced homelessness for every 10 people finding housing.
Last year, an average of 962 households per month in the county experienced homelessness for the first time, the report found.
Over the past year, researchers interviewed service providers working in encampments and the residents who live in them across Maricopa, Pima and Yuma counties. So far, results indicate that many strategies to reduce encampments in Arizona are being used, yet there is little evidence about what works best.
From interviews with people living in encampments, Ferguson said the research team has learned:
- Most people want housing and employment to help them exit homelessness.
- Experiences with law enforcement can range from neutral to harmful.
- Strategies designed to resolve issues involving encampments often do not address the root causes of homelessness.
- People in encampments often form communities and support one another.
The collaborative’s efforts are not merely academic research; they also involve identifying insights from the conditions real people are experiencing, Ferguson said. The insights are being shared with governmental and nongovernmental organizations as decision-makers consider the next steps in battling the homelessness crisis, she said.
Policymakers are aware of how many public dollars are spent on homeless services, and they seek to be better informed on the subject. The collaborative’s results help provide clarity, Ferguson said.
“We’re trying to achieve the highest quality of data possible and make this readily available for decision-makers,” Ferguson said. “Agency administrators and service providers are asking questions, and we are providing answers. Getting as close to real-time answers to questions around homelessness as we can is something we aspire to.”
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